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Predictions / Prognosis

Can a football match be predicted?

The challenge with betting, for you, lies in predicting a football game as precise as possible. But: Is that even possible?

In his book „Der perfekte Tipp“ (“the perfect bet“) Professor Heuer from Münster University (Germany) ascertained the existence of certain parameters that display a high correlation between the prediction of football games and the actual result. Hence, you have to examine these parameters that create said correlation, to construct a prognosis for the outcome of a match. What are these parameters?

Quick Access:

a) Parameters for predicting a football match

1. Goals 
2. Goalscoring opportunities
3. Conversion of chances
4. Possession
5. Running distance
6. Corner kicks and free kicks 
7. Team value
8. Home advantage / Weakness in away matches
9. Total goals
10. Bogey teams  
11. Match day

b) Can parameters deliver a certain prediction?

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a) Parameters for the prediction of football matches

The decisive factor for predicting the outcome of a match is the correct evaluation of the performance level of a team as well as the circumstances of a match. Both are composed of various key figures and values. These 11, among others, are important in that regard:

1. Goals

A team that doesn't score goals cannot win. It will, at best, reach a draw. Therefore, the figure of goals scored is a decisive factor for the evaluation of a team and for placing your bet.

At the same time conceded goals and thus the goal difference is an important parameter for you. A lot of scored goals can only strengthen a team, if, at the same time, it doesn't concede too many goals. Because: A team that scores an average 3 goals but simultaneously concedes 4 goals doesn't make points. And: A team that scores 5 goals every game and concedes 4 is weaker than a team that only scores 3 goals, but yet, doesn't concede a goal. For that reason you should always take the average goal difference into account.

2. Goalscoring opportunities

Apart from scored goals, goalscoring opportunities are an important indicator for you. Because: Only by creating goalscoring opportunities, a team may score a goal. Likewise you have to take into account the allowed goalscoring opportunities. They can lead to conceding a goal and consequently minimise the performance level of a team.

3. Conversion of chances

What good are 100 opportunities in a match if not one goal is scored? Hence, the quota of conversion of chances is capable of revealing something about the performance level of a team.

4. Possession

How often does a team have the ball? Another equally important parameter for the performance level of a team. Because: Only the team who has the ball can score a goal. Admittedly some teams (especially inferior ones) rely not on possession but counterattack but such a strategy only rarely pays off and is heavily dependent on the opponent.

5. Running distance

How many kilometres do players of a team run on average? Through a high willingness to run a team can create goalscoring opportunities and score goals. Admittedly a good positional play is also decisive for a teams performance; nevertheless, without an appropriate willingness to run a team cannot score a goal. Therefore, the total running distance of all players can as well be an indicator for the performance level of a team.

6. Corner kicks and free kicks

How many corner- and free kicks does a team get in a match? A significant indication for a team's effort to score a goal and therefore, an important indicator for the performance level of team. Because: "Smaller" factors like these create goalscoring opportunities and scored goals.

7. Team value

What is the current team value? A comparison between Bayern Munich and Augsburg shows that this can indeed be significant. While Bayern had a market value of 500 million euros in the season of 2016/17, Augsburgs team value only amounts to 60 million. This implies the quality of individual players and so the performance level of a team can be determined.

8. Home advantage / Weakness in away matches

Even though, according to statistics, the home advantage measured in goals has decreased constantly over the last 20 years - many teams perform distinctively better in front of their own crowds and therefore, get one or two points more at home. In figures: home teams score 1,66 goals on average, while away teams score merely 1,20 goals. You should thus take into account the home advantage whenever placing a bet.

9. Total goals

The total goals of Bundesliga matches varies dependent on the stage of the season. While at the beginning of a season a little more goals are being scored, later on the quota of goals decreases and finds its low point between the 20th and 30th matchday. Towards the very end of the season it then increases rapidly and reaches its climax. The average amount of goals per match used to be 3 for a long time, nowadays it has, however, fallen to 2,8. Both tendencies should be included into your considerations when placing a bet.

10. Bogey teams

There are simply certain teams against which a team losses (almost) every time. Most of the time it is impossible to determine the reason to why this happens. Nevertheless, there might be factors such as tactical orientation, formation or expectations that can have a distinctive influence on the outcome of a game; regardless of the discrepancy of the actual performance level of each team.

11. Match day

Even the match day where two teams face each other can have an impact on the performance level and the outcome of a game. If, for example, three match days before the end of the season Bayern Munich is already german champion due to an uncatchable margin of points, then that can influence motivation, concentration and performance level of the team. Why should they play at the limit of their capacity, if they have already reached their aim? Therefore, such match days can more frequently lead to a inferior opponent defeating Bayern. You should consequently take into account the match day to issue an as substantiated as possible prediction for the outcome of a match. 

Besides these parameters for the evaluation of the performance level of a team, there are thousands upon thousands further indicators with a predictive value for the outcome of a Bundesliga match. Through the ever increasing possibilities of analysis within the sector of sports statsitics, new parameters are added regularly. Hereby even more developed prognosis can be made almost every day.

b) Can parameters allow for a safe prediction?

Even though mathematically every possible outcome of a football match has a certain probability of occurrence and it is possible to calculate that probability with the help of various indicators, making a safe forecast for the outcome of a football match is impossible. Because: Apart from every statistically quantifiable data, unforeseeable factors - like coincidence, intuition and emotion as well as a sudden change of circumstances like refereeing errors or unusual pitch conditions - play a role. That way figures can add up to a prediction; however, reality looks completely different.

Improve your prediction with the help of the KickForm-Formula!

With the help of KickForm’s mathematical algorithm however, we make it possible for you to issue a scientifically sound prediction. Our special and unique procedure takes into account new factors and results everyday and thereby continuously optimises the successful formula - and allows for you to make better predictions. And: win more bets.

Design your own KickForm-Formula!

Since every football fan has his or her own expert-opinion, we make it possible for you to adapt our Football-Formula according to certain criteria like market value, possession, home advantage, favourite team or weakness in way matches yourself; without any mathematical knowledge. Depending on the set parameters, you receive a new prognosis for the match. That way you can compose your own Football-Formula and thus, become a betting-expert. Simultaneously you increase the probability to make calculations more precise than those of bookmakers. This allows for you to bet more successfully.

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