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ErklärungTo bet successfully, first of you have to understand what odds are. They form the basics of every of you bets.
a) Decimal odds
b) Fractional odds
Conversion of fractional quotas into decimal quotas
Conversion of fractinal quotas into implied probability
Conversion of positive USodds into decimal odds
Conversion of positive USodds into implied probability
Conversion negative USodds into decimal odds
Conversion negative USodds into implied probability
IV. What type of odd should I use?
The challenge: finding Value Bets
KickForm Value Bets Finder
Calculating a Value Bet (option 1)
Calculating a Value Bet (option 2)
Odds are the probability of the occurrence of a certain event. Through an odd you state for example the probability of Borussia Dortmund defeating Bayern Munich. But how exactly does the concept of probability function/work?
Probability is a measurement for the certainty or uncertainty of an event taking place. It determines for example how certain it is that Dortmund will defeat Bayern. This probability is expressed in percent most of the time.
Example
When you flip a coin it can either land on heads or tales. The probability for both possibilities is the same. To calculate the respective percentage of probability, you have to divide 100 percent by the potential outcomes of flipping the coin: so two. The probability for heads or tales is consequently 50 percent.
Depending on country and/or bookmaker you will come across different types of odds. They aren’t presented in the accustomed percent. Nevertheless, they just form another way of expressing probability and so you can convert them easily and in no time with the help of a few tricks. For calculating you usually utilise units that can have a differing worth. To simplify matters we assume that one unit equals one Euro.
Decimal odds, also called european quotas, don’t only state the probability of a certain event but also indirectly what you get in exchange for your stake. They are the most common type of citing odds.
ExampleThe odd for a win of Leverkusen against Hamburg is 2,0. If you put 5 Euros on a win of Leverkusen and Leverkusen wins the match, you will get 10 Euros back. So for each Euro you get two back. Therefore, you won 5 Euros.
Whats is the probability of Leverkusen winning (the so called implied probability) put in percentage? For figuring that out you have to divide 100 percent by the odd of 2,0. The implied probability in this case then is 50 percent. The following example will clarify that calculation:
Example
Odd 2,50 > What is the implied probabilityt?
100 percent : 2,50 = 40 percent
So the odd of 2,50 equals an implied probability of 40 percent.
All of that also works the other way round. If you want to convert a probability into a decimal odd, you have to divide 100 by the percent of probability.
Example
Implied prbability of 25 percent > What is the decimal odd?
100 percent: 25 percent = decimal odd of 4
If you don’t want to get out your calculator each time to convert the implied probability into percent, you can memorise the following as a rule of thumb: The more likely it is that a team wins the lower the decimal odd. To help you keep the most frequently used conversions in mind, we put together a summary of the most common odds.
Table  Odds and Probabilities
Odd  1,01  1,5  1,83  2  2,5  3  4  5  10 
Probability  99%  67%  55%  50%  40%  33%  25%  20%  10% 
Fractional odds, also called fractionquotas or UK odds, are another possibility to express probabilities. They are utilised foremost in Great Britain. These odds show both your stake as well as your winnings. A fractional odd of 6/2 for example states that for a stake of 2 Euros you get 6 Euros back. Hence, the numerator always displays the winnings while the denominator shows your stake.
Example
The odd of a win of Everton against Manchester United is 3/2. Should you put 2 Euros on Everton winning and Everton then wins the match, you receive 3 Euros. Your profit is sccordingly 1 Euro.
If you don't get along too well with fractional odds, you might as well convert them into decimal odds. For that you determine the quotient of the fraction and add 1 to the result.
Example
Fractional odd of 3/2 > What is the decimal odd?
3 : 2 = 1,5
1,5 + 1 = 2,50
The fractional odd of 3/2 equals the decimal odd of 2,50.
Caution!
Bettingrookies routinely assume that decimal odds can be converted into fractional odds by simply putting 1 as the numerator and the decimal odd as the denominator. A decimal odd of 2,5 would then translate into 1/2,5 as a fractional odd. But that is WRONG.
You can convert fractional odds directly into implied probability. For doing so you divide the denominator by the sum of numerator and denominator and afterwards multiply the result by 100.
Example
fractional odd of 3/2 > What is the implied probability?
2 : (2+3) = 2 : 5 = 0,4
0,4 x 100 = 40 percent
So the fractional odd of 3/2 equals an implied probability of 40 percent.
American odds, also called Lines, have to be divided into positive and negative odds.
Positive odds display how much net gain you receive when betting 100 Euros (or 100 Dollar et.).
Example
The odd for the New Yorky Red Bulls winning against New England amounts to + 150. If you now bet 100 Euros on a win by New York and New York actually wins the game, you will receive 250 Euros. You, therefore, make a net gain of 150 Euros.
Should you find the odds of Americans incomprehensible, you can easily translate them into decimal odds as well. For that you divide the positive USodd by 100 and then add 1 to the result.
Example
American odd + 150
What is the deciaml odd?
150 : 100 = 1,5
1,5 + 1 = 2,50
The USodd +150 equals therfore the deciaml odd of 2,50.
You can also convert the positive USodds into implied probability. For that you have to divide 100 by the sum of the USodd and 100. To then again obtain percentage points, you have to multiply the result with 100.
Example
American odd of + 150
What is the implied probability?
100 : (150 + 100) = 100 : 250 = 0,4
0,4 x 100 = 40 Prozent
So the USodd of +150 equals the implied probability of 40 percent.
Negative odds display, how much you have to bet, to receive a net gain of 100 Euros (or Dollars etc.).
Example
The odd for a win by Toronto against Philadelphia amounts to  150. If you now put 150 Euros on Toronto winning and they actually win the match, you will receive 250 Euros. Hence, you make a net gain of100 Euros.
To convert the negative American odds into decimal odds, you have to divide 100 by the odd (regardless of the minus sign) and then add 1 to the result.
Example
American odd of  150 What is the deciaml odd?
100: 150 = 0,67
0,67 + 1 = 1,67
So the USodd of+150 equals the decimal odd of 1,67.
You can also convert the negative into the implied probability. But since this calculation is quite complex, it is easier to convert the negative USodd into a decimal odd first (see above) and in the next step calculate the implied probability from it (100 : decimal odd).
Did you lose track? For an overview and a quick chart to look things up we listed the common odds and their conversion.
Chart  Overview decimal odds, fractional odds and american odds
EU odd 
US odd 
UK odd 

EU odd 
US odd 
UK odd 

EU odd 
US odd 
UK odd 
1,1 
1/10 
1000 
4,2 
16/5 
320 
7,1 
61/10 
610 

1,2 
1/5 
500 
4,3 
33/10 
330 
7,2 
31/5 
620 

1,3 
3/10 
333 
4,4 
17/5 
340 
7,3 
63/10 
630 

1,4 
2/5 
250 
4,5 
7/2 
350 
7,4 
32/5 
640 

1,5 
1/2 
200 
4,6 
18/5 
360 
7,5 
13/2 
650 

1,6 
3/5 
167 
4,7 
37/10 
370 
7,6 
33/5 
660 

1,7 
7/10 
143 
4,8 
19/5 
380 
7,7 
67/10 
670 

1,8 
4/5 
125 
4,9 
39/10 
390 
7,8 
34/5 
680 

1,9 
9/10 
111 
5 
4/1 
400 
7,9 
69/10 
690 

2 
1/1 
100 
5,1 
41/10 
410 
8 
7/1 
700 

2,1 
11/10 
110 
5,2 
21/5 
420 
8,1 
71/10 
710 

2,2 
6/5 
120 
5,3 
43/10 
430 
8,2 
36/5 
720 

2,3 
13/10 
130 
5,4 
22/5 
440 
8,3 
73/10 
730 

2,4 
7/5 
140 
5,5 
9/2 
450 
8,4 
37/5 
740 

2,5 
3/2 
150 
5,6 
23/5 
460 
8,5 
15/2 
750 

2,6 
8/5 
160 
5,7 
47/10 
470 
8,6 
38/5 
760 

2,7 
17/10 
170 
5,6 
23/5 
460 
8,7 
77/10 
770 

2,8 
9/5 
180 
5,7 
47/10 
470 
8,8 
39/5 
780 

2,9 
19/10 
190 
5,8 
24/5 
480 
8,9 
79/10 
790 

3 
2/1 
200 
5,9 
49/10 
490 
9 
8/1 
800 

3,1 
21/10 
210 
6 
5/1 
500 
9,1 
71/10 
810 

3,2 
11/5 
220 
6,1 
51/10 
510 
9,2 
41/5 
820 

3,3 
23/10 
230 
6,2 
26/5 
520 
9,3 
83/10 
830 

3,4 
12/5 
240 
6,3 
53/10 
530 
9,4 
42/5 
840 

3,5 
5/2 
250 
6,4 
27/5 
540 
9,5 
17/2 
850 

3,6 
13/5 
260 
6,5 
11/2 
550 
9,6 
43/5 
860 

3,7 
27/10 
270 
6,6 
28/5 
560 
9,7 
87/10 
870 

3,8 
14/5 
280 
6,7 
57/10 
570 
9,8 
44/5 
880 

3,9 
29/10 
290 
6,8 
29/5 
580 
9,9 
89/10 
890 

4 
3/1 
300 
6,9 
59/10 
590 
10 
9/1 
900 

4,1 
31/10 
310 
7 
6/1 
600 
We recommend you use the odds that are the most understandable for you. If bookmakers work with different odds, just use this guideto convert them respectively. That way you make sure that you don't make mistakes when assessing a game and possibly loose money.
Value Bets are bets that are overvalued by the bookmaker and thus, present too high of a quote. They are therefore at hand when the probability that an event will occur is much higher according to you estimation than assumed by the bookmaker.
Example
Bayern München plays Viktoria Cologne in the first round of the DFB Cup. The bookmakers' odd is 2,0 for a by Bayern. The implied probability is, thus, 50 percent. But as an experienced football expert you know that it is proportionally a lot more likely that Bayern will win. The implied probability should, therefore, rather be 80 or 90 percent. So it is a Value Bet that you should definitely bet on.
Unfortunately, no bookmaker will offer you such an unrealistic odd you can detect at first sight. The challenge is to find Value Bets.
With the help of our KickForm ValueBets Finder that challenge becomes an easy thing for you. Since we issue our own odds with our calculations, you can directly compare them with those of bookmakers. That way you can automatically detect Value Bets. That's what we call Algorithm Recommendation.
To check whether you found a Value Bet, you have to multiply the KickForm probability in percent by the bookmaker's odd and then divide the result by 100.
(KickForm probability in percent x bookmaker's odd): 100 = KickForm Value Bet
If the result is above 1, it is a Value Bet. The following applies: The higher above 1, the more value the bet has. If the value is less than 1, you should stay away from the bet. It isn't a Value Bet.
Example
Dortmund play against Darmstadt. KickForm calculates that Dortmund will win with a probability of 65 percent. The bookmakers deploy an odd off 2,0. Have you found a Value Bet?
(65 Prozent x 2,0) : 100 = 1,3
The result is above 1, you found a Value Bet.You should bet on the match.
Alternatively you may as well calculate Value Bets with your own estimated probability. For that there are two different formulas that allow for you to check whether you found a Value Bet.
To check whether a match is a Value Bet, you have to multiply your estimated probability of a win by the bookmaker's odd and then divide the result by 100. If it is more than 1, you have found a Value Bet. You should most definitely bet on it. As a rule of thump it applies that: the more the result is over 1, the more successful the bet. If the result is less than 1, you should stay away from the bet. Ultimately this option works just as our KickForm Value Bet Finder with the difference that you use your own estimation instead of the KickFormPrognosis.
Example
Bayern plays against Bremen. You estimate the probability of Bayern winning is 70 percent while while your bookmaker states an odd of 1,5. (Your probability in percent x bookmaker's odd) : 100 = Value (70 percent x 1,5) : 100 = 1,05 The result is above 1, you should bet on the match.
For the second option to calculate a Value Bet, you have to your estimated probability by the bookmaker's decimal odd and then subtract 100 percent from the result. If the result is above 0, you have found a Value Bet. You should bet on it. If the result is less than 0 and, therefore, negative, you should stay away from the bet.
Example
Your bookmaker issues an odd of 2,0 for the match between Dortmund and Schalke. Since Dortmund is in a rather poor form lately, you estimate the probability of a win by Dortmund to be merely 40 percent. Is this bet forth it?
(40 percent x 2,0) –100 percent = 20 percent
The result si less than 0, you should not place the bet.
So geht´s!
Wähle einen oder mehrere unserer Faktoren (Mannschaftswert, FifaRangliste) aus und stelle einen Wert mit dem Schieberegler ein. Damit gibst Du dem Faktor bei der Berechnung einen entsprechenden Wert und gibst der Fußballformel einen anderen Schwerpunkt.
Sobald Du auf Speichern klickst, wird der Faktor bei der Berechnung berücksichtigt und Du erhälst Deine persönliche Prognose.
Beispiel:
Wenn Du der Meinung bist, dass Geld viele Tore schießt und dieser Faktor besonders viel Einfluss auf das Abschneiden einer Mannschaft bei der EM haben soll, dann wähle den Faktor Mannschaftswert aus und stell diesen auf 100%.
Kombiniere Dein Fachwissen mit unserer Formel und mach daraus Deine persönliche Fußballformel
Erklärung