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The ideal football bet

Betting Wagers: How should I bet?

I. The ideal betting system - Making money out of football bets

     1. Define your starting capital!
     2. Only bet on matches that you can assess!
     3. Choose the right betting category!
     4. Stay away from combined bets!
     5. Stay away from live bets!
     6. Find Value Bets!
     7. Use know how in niche markets!
     8. Use a precise Money Management!
     9. Keep multiple betting accounts at different bookmakers!
    10. Keep a record of your bets!

II. Portfolio Management / Calculation of wagers

     a) Kelly Formula
           1. Kelly complete
           2. Fractional Kelly Formula
           3. Fractional Kelly Formula with 10%

b) Underbetting

III. Profit maximization with football bets

 

I. The ideal betting system - Making money out of football bets

For you to earn money with football bets on a permanent basis, you need a betting system. But there is now universally valid system, that will lead you to success in any event. Moreover you have to create your own betting system that complies with your style of betting. For you to know where and how to start, we compiled the 10 most important basics.

1. Define your starting capital!

Before placing money on bets on a regular basis, you have to determine what capital you want to start with. Even if it sounds obvious: You should only budget the money you have at your disposal. Do not factor money that you need for rent, insurance or other living expenses in your starting capital, also called bankroll. It will keep your mind clear and does not put you under the pressure to have to earn money from betting. Only like that you are able to make wise decisions and be successful in the long run.

2. Only bet on matches that you can assess!

For successful betting, a comprehensive knowledge of football and each individual match is indispensable for you. Therefore, you should get to know each team in detail. Assess form curve, missing players, match history and many other indicators that help you to carry out a profound match assessment. The Most important parameters you should consider in that regard we showed you in Predictions and Prognosis and in Strategies for successful football bets.

Bets placed intuitively on your favourite team or high odds will probably lead to occasional lucky strikes, a successful betting system, however, can not be achieved that way. Thus, you should bet on matches in leagues wau are familiar with and on matches you can evaluate proficiently. Our KickForm Algorithm will support you with making better predictions for a match dyad will grant you an advantage over the bookmakers.

3. Choose the right betting category!

Play your bet only in categories you are familiar with or where you haven already been quiet successful. At the beginning of your betten career you have to dest different betting categories to get a good impression of your options. Simple and low-risk bets for betting rookies are the classic 3-way-bets, there you can place bets on home win, draw or away win and Over/Under-2,5-bets. Statistical analyses showed that these two categories of bets are won especially often.

What to consider to bet successfully we explained for you in Strategies for successful football bets.

4. Stay away from combined bets!

Even though combined bets have a certain appeal - stay away vom it! When playing combined bets each additional match on your betting slip constitutes an increase of the probability of loss. An optimal betten system is rather based upon a probability as high as possible of making the right bets. Professional players, therefore, exclusively bet on individual matches.

5. Stay away from live bets!

Live bets have a similar, too high, probability of loss, so that you should not put your money on them. For this kind of bets you have to make many decisions in a matter of seconds. That won’t give you enough time for a comprehensive analysis which you need for placing profound bets. The result of that is: You quickly make mistakes that cost you a lot of money.

Moreover the odds of live bets are always under the offers before the match. For that reason, the payout key only rarely exceed 90 percent. No desirable bet, if you want to earn money with football bets.

6. Find Value Bets!

The basic rule for every bettor: Before placing money on a match, you have to check the bookmaker’s odd for value. Only if the bet has value, you should out money on it. Our KickForm ValueBets Finder will help you to detect Value Bets in no time. In „Finding Value Bets“ we made it clear for you, how that works in detail.

7. Use know how in niche markets!

Big betting companies offer you up to 40.000 different bets to choose from on a daily basis. Obviously they are not able to precisely assess each match in detail. You can almost be certain that you will not be able to find a odd with a considerable value for matches with the participation of well known and popular teams like Bayern, Dortmund and Schalke. So, if you also know your “way around“ in other leagues, it is worthwhile for you to shift your focus on them. You’re an expert for the 3. Liga or the second Spanish division? Use that to your advantage! Check those matches for value and that way gain a margin toward the bookmakers.

8. Use a precise Money Management!

For you to always stay in the game, you should at no time place too much money on a single match. Neither should you try to make up for a loss with playing a risky wager afterwards. Instead, you should follow a strict and clear Money Management. Many bettors work with flat wagers or dynamic wagers where the amount that has to be placed follows the initial betting budget (flat wagers) or the current betting budget (dynamic wagers). No matter with money management you choose to work with, you should first and foremost use smaller amounts in the area no more than 3 – 5 percent of your betting budget.

You can also determine your wagers depending on the risk of the bet. Many professional bettors utilize some form of the unit-system for that. In this system 1/10 units, for example, equal the smallest betting amount and 10/10 units equal the highest one. Depending on the risk of the bet you then place a diverging number of units on the match. The units, however, you have to link with fixed percentages that will then determine how much money you should place on a bet.

Example

Bayern plays against Hoffenheim. Since Bayern is not only in first place at the moment, but is also playing especially strong, you think Bayern will win the match. You consider the risk of loosing the risk of losing to be rather low. Therefore, you bet 7/10 units. You have linked 7/10 units to 7 percent of your betting budget. Let’s say your budget amounts to 100 Euros. So you place 7 Euros on the match.

Apart from that: Set targets for your bets. Determine in regular intervals what profit you want to earn in which period of time. Do not set your targets too high, for you to keep a clear mind and mask thoroughly thought through decisions.

9. Keep multiple betting accounts at different bookmakers!

Exploit the variety of bookmakers on the market and keep multiple betting accounts with different providers. Because: Depending on the match, the bookmakers’ odds differ so that you may always bet on the best odds with these accounts. Furthermore , the registration with multiple bookmakers is worth it anyways, since many of them distribute a registration-incentive which you may immediately utilize for your first bets.

10. Keep a record of your bets!

With multiple betting accounts and many different bets that are taking place at the same time, it is hard to keep track. That, however, is crucial if you want to keep an eye on how your betting system is doing and where you suffer losses. You should, therefore, keep a record of your bets. That way all profits and expenses are available to you at a glance - and you can quickly react to developments and refine your betting system.

 

II. Portfolio Management / Calculation of wagers

You did your research, discovered different matches and Value Bets and know exactly when you want to place a bet on whom and with which strategy. With that your plan of action, which is called Portfolio in technical terms, is fixed. How much money should you now place on each match? Admittedly you may arbitrarily determine how many percentage points of your betting budget you place on a match depending on the bet’s risk; however, you have not based that upon scientific calculations. But a professional Portfolio Management includes exactly calculated amount which you place on your bets. So how can you calculate those?

As a general rule: Never place all of your money on a single bet, no Mutter how safe it seems to be. Instead, spread your wagers on your bets to spread and thus, lessen the risk. But how does this general rule help you in practice? For you to calculate in detail how high your wagers should be to reach the biggest possible rate of expansion for your capital, you can choose from different models:

a) Kelly Formula

The Kelly Formula, als called Kelly criterion or Kelly system, is on of the most known and common methods of calculating wagers for football bets.

Underlying idea

The Kelly Formula solves a basic problem of sporting bets: As a bettor you face the issue of how much you should bet, with each bet. If you place only a minimal portion of your budget, you admittedly lessen the probability to go broke, however, at the same time, your account balance increases only in very small steps. With regular high wagers you can you might quickly and considerably increase your budget, but you are also in danger of gambling away your budget with just a few bets. The best possible strategy lies somewhere in between.

The Kelly Formula solves this problem by merging the two extremes. It calculates you wager, depending on your budget, so that it equals the advantage you got from the bet. I this case it applies that: The higher the probability of an outcome of a match is, the more you bet on it. This also means that, if the probability is lower, your wager decreases as well. All in all, the probability of you completely loosing your betting budget falls to almost zero. At the same time you reach (ideally) the best possible maximization of profit.

Evaluation of the Kelly Formula

Die Kelly Formel rechnet mit Wahrscheinlichkeiten. In Fußballspielen finden sich jedoch zahlreiche Faktoren, die nicht über Wahrscheinlichkeiten berechnet werden können, sondern von anderen Faktoren, wie dem Zufall, abhängig sind. Die Formel kann daher bestimmte Faktoren, wie einen unberechtigten Elfmeter, plötzlichen Regen oder die Verletzung eines wichtigen Spielers, im Vorfeld nicht analysieren und somit nicht miteinberechnen. Eine 100-prozentige Berechnung aller Wahrscheinlichkeiten erlaubt dir die Kelly Formel daher nicht. Gleichzeitig ist es jedoch genauso unwahrscheinlich, dass unvorhergesehene Faktoren und Ereignisse immer wieder auftreten und dich immer wieder Wetten verlieren lassen. Damit bietet die Kelly Formel einen wichtigen Baustein in der Berechnung von Wetteinsätzen für Fußballwetten.

1. Kelly complete

To be able to calculate your wager for each match, you have to find value in a bet. It forms the basis of the Kelly Formula. If you do not find value in a bet, applying the Kelly Formular does not make sense. But since you should only bet on Value Bets in the first place, this should apply for you anyway. Then you divide the calculated value by the quotient from the bookmaker’s odd minus 1. The result is the portion of your betting budget you should place on the bet.

wager = value : (odd – 1)

Example  

A bookmaker issues the odd of 2,0 for the match between Ingolstadt and Schalke for Schalke winning. You think than Schalke will ein with a probability of 55 percent (or you use the KickForm-Probability for that). Your betting budget currently amounts to 100 Euros. How much schuld you place in the match?

1. Calculation of the Value
(odd x probability) : 100 = value
For our example that means: (2,0 x 55) : 100 = 1,1
The result is above 1, so you have found a Value Bet. The value has the amount which it is. In our case that would mean 0,1.

2. Calculation of the Wager
wager = value : (odd – 1)
For our example that means: (2,0 – 1) = 0,1 --> 10 percent
You should place 10 percent of your betting budget. That would mean placing 10 Euros on a win of Schalke against Ingolstadt.

3. Upcoming bets
Let’s say Schalke does indeed win and you receive a 20 Euro profit from the bet. If you then again bet on a match with the same odd and the same probability, you will, according to the Kelly Formula, again place 10 percent of your budget on it. But since your budget is now a little higher thanks to the previous bet you won, your wager would be higher as well. In that case you would bet 11 Euros. That way the growth of your capital curve would increase especially steep. If there is another odd and/or another probability for the next match, you would have to calculate the percentage for your wager once again with the Kelly Formula..

2. Fractional Kelly Formula

Depending on the respective odd and probability, the Kelly Formular can sometimes propose quite high wagers. That way the upward- and downward movements of your betting capital may turn out extremely drastic. That is especially dangerous if you overestimate your advantage over the bookmakers. The risk the Kelly Formula bears, therefore, seems too high to some bettors, that is way there are now two modifications of it.

One of them is the fractional Kelly Formula. Here, you calculate your wager according to the Kelly Formula just as demonstrated above. However, you only use a fraction as determined by you, for your bets. You might, for example, determine that you always place only 25 percent of your calculated wager. That way you reduce the risk of loss. Admittedly your profits would then not be as high but it might be statistically worth it. Because: If your relation between won and lost bets is balanced you make profits with the fractional Kelly Formula. Should you deploy it completely, you are ‘in the red‘.

3. Fractional Kelly Formula with 10%

A modification of the Kelly Formula which is utilized especially often by bettors is the fractional Kelly Formula with 10 percent. Here, you calculate your wager according to the Kelly Formula and then place only 10 percent of the proposed wager on your matches. That way you significantly reduce the risk of too high losses and may also place bets on upcoming matches with a sober mid after you lost a few bets in a row. Here the statistics are on your side as well. If you have an almost balanced relation of won and lost bets, you will be in the black with this version.

b) Underbetting

The Kelly Formula presents you an optimal wager, if your estimated probability and the bookmaker’s odd add up. But since you never now exactly with hat probability a match will end, you might err with your estimation from time to time. That has the consequence that the Kelly Formula suggests an amount that does not any longer constitute the optimal wager. If you deploy under betting, you, therefore, place only a fraction of the amount proposed through the Kelly Formula and thus, decrease the risk of loss. Hence under betting simply describes the application of the fractional Kelly Formula.

 

III. Profit maximization with football bets

If you want to successfully earn money with football bets, you schuld use a Money Management, that enables a constant increase of profit. Meaning, that with each bet you raise your betting budget and, thus, your bank account.

The Kelly Formula, both in its complete version and in its fractional interpretation, (under betting) belongs to the models that lets you bet with the aim of profit increase. It is based upon the assumption that you constantly want to bet and increase your assets. Ideally your betting budget grows with each won bet with the help of the Kelly Formula, so that each wager increases as well. That way the growth curve of your betting assets especially steep. You then work with a Money Management, that focuses on a maximization of profit. Should you turn out to be competent football- and betting expert, you can that way regularly earn money from football bets.

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