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Bundesliga Predictions and Prognosis - Predictions of football matches

Who will be German champion? On which rank will your favourite team complete the season? Who has to relegate from the Bundesliga and how will my team perform the upcoming weekend?

Not only during the Bundesliga season but every match day, millions of fans try to figure out how the next Match of their favourite team or the match day as a whole will end. The KickForm experts have intensively studied the topic of predictions of football matches and issued the currently best possible mathematical predictions of football matches. For that KickForm calculates probabilities for the outcome of individual football matches as well as a simulation of the whole season.

 

The KickForm „Football-Formula"™ for the best possible prediction of football matches

The KickForm predictions are based on a statistical procedure for the prediction of football matches developed by physics professor Heuer. KickForm took this procedure as a foundation, since it was proven to be especially accurate. Compared to the odds of bookmakers it could be verified that predictions according to this model wer better than those of the bookmakers.

 

The Bundesliga Football-Formula – 7 Steps to a prediction

The result of a football macht is predicted in a total of seven steps.

Step 1: Determining the Home Advantage

home advantage = c1 (home advantage of the last three years) + c2 (home advantage of the current season)

„Home teams score more goals on average. Intersection 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals“.

Step 2: Calculating the Number of Goals per Match

Goals per match after disclosure of all teams

„Typically 3 goals are scored in a football match. To be precise the number of goals has decreased over time and now lies at 2,8.“

Step 3: Calculating the Performance Level and Expected Goal Difference

Goal scoring opportunities are much mir exploratory for the purpose of prognosis than goals. Good teams display a slightly better conversion of chances. The prediction is especially good, if the goalscoring opportunities of the current and the past season as well as the market value are taken into account. In doing so correlations of up to 0,67 are achieved, that means the prediction is correct in 67% of the cases.

Performance level = c1 X1 + c2 X2 + c3 X3 + c4 X4

X1 = mean goalscoring difference (GCD) of the previous season. Loading of the last three years (0,5, 0,35, 0,15)

X2 = goalscoring difference of the current season

X3 = current fitness value (mean goalscoring difference, loaded with a decreasing exponential function)

X4 = logarithmized market value

Step 4: Determining the Exceptionality of Promoted Teams

The performance of promoted teams is stunningly well predetermined. Obvious deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8), therefore, are quite rare.

Step 5: Calculating the expected amount of goals

For every match the total amount of goals is similar, however, there are high-performing teams that score more goals.

amount of goals = c1 X1 + c2 X2 + mean goals per match

X1 = total of goalscoring opportunities in the past with identical weighting-parameters of the last 3 years

X2 = effective total of goalscoring opportunities in the current season. Here the total of goalscoring opportunities of all teams is subtracted so that the total of goalscoring opportunities as compared to the average is determined.

Step 6: Calculation the expected goals

Relation of the calculated goal difference and the total goals for the respective match.

Step 7: Dependence on the Match Day

Weighting factor for the respective match day or für den jeweiligen Spieltag or stage of the season.

 

Result Prognosis with the KickForm Football-Formula™

Example: Dortmund against Schalke

Prediction after using the KickForm Football-Formula™

Result: 1,429 : 1,022

Obviously no match results in a 1,429 : 1,022. This is just the average. With the help of the Poisson-Distribution we may calculate these figures for the distribution of 100% on a row of results for each team.

The Poisson-Formula itself look like this: P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) : x!.

The following Poisson-Distribution accrues from the result above:

Goals 0 1 2 3 4 5
Dortmund 23,95 % 34,23 % 24,46 % 11,65 % 4,16 % 1,19 %
Schalke 35,99 % 36,78 % 18,79 % 6,40 % 1,64 % 0,33 %

This example demonstrates that Dortmund will not score a goal with a probability of 23,95%, score one goal with a probability of 34,23 % and score two goals with a probability of 24,46 %.

For Schalke the probability only amounts to 35,99 % for no goals, Tor 36,78 % for one goal and 18,79 % for two goals.

The most likely result, therefore, is 1:1.

This result will occur with a probability of 12,59 %!

Individualisation of the KickForm Football-Formula

KickForm even goes a step further and offers each user the possibility to customize this result by using a differenten weighting according to his notion. That way football fans can, on the internet-platform www.kickform.com, individually, playfully and without in depth knowledge of maths, develop their own prediction of football results on a scientific basis. Registered users can playfully choose factors as market value, possession, home advantage, favourite team or away weakness and thereby give the the FootballFormula™ a different emphasis. That way anyone can arrange his or her own Football-Formula™ and become a betting expert.

Example Weighting Factor Home Advantage
You are of the opinion that home teams score crucially more goals. Then you can give the factor home advantage mir weighting, e.g. + 0,6. This has the consequence that the result Dortmund Schalke now amounts to 2,029 : 1,022 and the most likely result is then not any longer 1:1 but 2:1.

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